Tuesday, November 09, 2004

President Bush given greater preference than Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties in Florida

After being urged to do so in an email, I've examined the difference between votes cast for President and Senate, by party, in Florida. President Bush gained a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties.

In the following chart a positive number in the column comparing the percentage vote between the Presidential and Senate races indicates how many more percentage points than the Senate candidate the Presidential candidate had. A negative number indicates how fewer percentage points a party's Presidential candidate had than his Senate candidate counterpart.

County Bush % Kerry % % Senate Rep. % Senate Dem. %Pres. - %Sen. (R) %Pres. - %Sen. (D)
Lafayette 73.98% 25.41% 54.57% 42.90% 19.42% -17.49%
Dixie 68.84% 30.42% 52.68% 43.37% 16.15% -12.95%
Liberty 63.79% 35.42% 48.75% 49.12% 15.03% -13.71%
Holmes 77.25% 21.81% 63.41% 32.35% 13.84% -10.54%
Taylor 63.71% 35.54% 50.17% 46.98% 13.54% -11.45%
Hardee 69.65% 29.64% 56.41% 39.30% 13.24% -9.65%
Wakulla 57.61% 41.62% 45.10% 52.05% 12.51% -10.43%
Suwannee 70.58% 28.61% 58.45% 39.00% 12.14% -10.39%
Gilchrist 70.37% 28.75% 58.86% 37.40% 11.51% -8.65%
Franklin 58.55% 40.47% 47.13% 50.26% 11.42% -9.79%
Hamilton 54.97% 44.50% 44.75% 52.68% 10.23% -8.18%
Union 72.64% 26.76% 62.49% 35.49% 10.15% -8.73%
Madison 50.51% 48.73% 40.58% 56.74% 9.93% -8.01%
Columbia 67.05% 32.14% 57.15% 39.89% 9.90% -7.75%
Calhoun 63.41% 35.50% 53.69% 43.31% 9.72% -7.81%
Levy 62.51% 36.48% 53.40% 43.56% 9.12% -7.09%
Bradford 69.61% 29.90% 60.82% 36.67% 8.79% -6.77%
Gulf 66.07% 33.05% 57.38% 40.13% 8.69% -7.08%
Baker 77.73% 21.90% 69.16% 28.95% 8.57% -7.05%
Highlands 62.36% 36.99% 54.72% 42.15% 7.64% -5.16%
Washington 71.09% 28.09% 63.45% 34.15% 7.63% -6.06%
Jackson 61.20% 38.15% 53.73% 44.24% 7.47% -6.09%
Okeechobee 57.28% 42.23% 50.00% 45.84% 7.29% -3.61%
Citrus 56.86% 42.14% 49.68% 46.32% 7.19% -4.17%
Jefferson 44.11% 55.29% 36.93% 61.10% 7.18% -5.81%
Hernando 52.93% 46.16% 46.03% 50.00% 6.90% -3.84%
Putnam 59.12% 40.08% 52.23% 44.90% 6.88% -4.82%
Hillsborough 53.00% 46.24% 46.29% 51.42% 6.71% -5.18%
Polk 58.61% 40.79% 52.28% 44.81% 6.33% -4.01%
Glades 58.33% 41.02% 52.15% 44.23% 6.18% -3.21%
Pasco 54.07% 44.39% 48.02% 48.74% 6.05% -4.34%
Sumter 62.18% 36.39% 57.04% 40.87% 5.14% -4.49%
Pinellas 49.57% 49.51% 44.47% 52.74% 5.10% -3.24%
Manatee 56.62% 42.66% 51.53% 45.86% 5.09% -3.20%
Marion 58.20% 41.00% 53.23% 44.02% 4.97% -3.02%
Walton 73.22% 25.92% 68.56% 28.94% 4.65% -3.02%
Gadsden 29.80% 69.72% 25.15% 73.33% 4.64% -3.61%
DeSoto 58.05% 41.18% 53.55% 43.28% 4.51% -2.10%
Nassau 72.65% 26.16% 68.41% 29.73% 4.24% -3.56%
Clay 76.18% 23.27% 72.25% 25.88% 3.93% -2.61%
Leon 37.85% 61.50% 34.09% 64.64% 3.76% -3.14%
Lake 60.02% 38.90% 56.38% 40.89% 3.64% -1.99%
Bay 71.19% 28.08% 67.63% 30.24% 3.55% -2.16%
Sarasota 53.51% 45.20% 50.08% 48.10% 3.43% -2.90%
Alachua 42.89% 56.16% 39.63% 58.71% 3.25% -2.55%
Brevard 57.66% 41.56% 54.44% 42.62% 3.22% -1.07%
Hendry 58.89% 40.52% 55.76% 41.97% 3.13% -1.45%
Duval 57.76% 41.65% 54.66% 43.71% 3.10% -2.05%
Okaloosa 77.65% 21.58% 74.70% 22.53% 2.94% -0.95%
Flagler 51.03% 48.28% 48.13% 49.49% 2.89% -1.22%
Santa Rosa 77.35% 21.78% 74.65% 23.04% 2.70% -1.26%
Volusia 48.85% 50.50% 46.17% 51.09% 2.67% -0.59%
St. Johns 68.60% 30.59% 66.19% 32.14% 2.41% -1.55%
Indian River 60.12% 39.03% 57.80% 39.60% 2.32% -0.57%
St. Lucie 47.56% 51.81% 45.34% 51.70% 2.22% 0.11%
Monroe 49.24% 49.71% 47.19% 49.51% 2.05% 0.21%
Seminole 58.10% 41.34% 56.11% 41.76% 1.99% -0.42%
Escambia 65.30% 33.74% 63.55% 34.56% 1.74% -0.83%
Martin 57.09% 41.69% 55.41% 42.35% 1.68% -0.66%
Palm Beach 39.03% 60.37% 37.95% 60.25% 1.09% 0.12%
Broward 34.60% 64.22% 33.61% 64.39% 0.99% -0.17%
Orange 49.62% 49.83% 49.16% 48.99% 0.45% 0.84%
Osceola 52.46% 46.99% 52.00% 45.16% 0.45% 1.83%
Charlotte 55.69% 42.93% 55.49% 42.28% 0.20% 0.64%
Lee 59.82% 39.09% 59.81% 38.24% 0.01% 0.84%
Collier 65.04% 34.06% 66.01% 32.43% -0.97% 1.63%
Miami-Dade 46.66% 52.84% 49.28% 48.96% -2.62% 3.88%
Totals 52.10% 47.08% 49.44% 48.32% 2.66% -1.23%


A look at all the data reveals that the top 27 counties showing a greater preference for President Bush than the Repulican Senate candidate were using optical scan voting machines. The two counties that did not show this preference were both using touchscreen voting machines. Both were iVotronic machines manufactured by ES&S.

I have updated my Excel spreadsheet on the site for those interested in examing the numbers themselves. Data in this calculation was taken from the Florida Department of State's Website.

An analysis of the House race as compared to the Presidential race shall follow soon.

1 Comments:

At 10:13 AM, Blogger impactGlassman said...

I find this tabulation stunning! It had always been my impression that most people do not vote split tickets. Here we see it happening to a substantial degree in virtually every Florida county, and in every significant case the tickets were split in favor of the same presidential candidate, whether the voter was voting for the Republican or Democratic senatorial candidate. How probable is that vis-a-vis historical data?

 

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