President Bush given greater preference than Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties in Florida
After being urged to do so in an email, I've examined the difference between votes cast for President and Senate, by party, in Florida. President Bush gained a higher percentage of the vote than the Republican Senate candidate in all but two counties.
In the following chart a positive number in the column comparing the percentage vote between the Presidential and Senate races indicates how many more percentage points than the Senate candidate the Presidential candidate had. A negative number indicates how fewer percentage points a party's Presidential candidate had than his Senate candidate counterpart.
| County | Bush % | Kerry % | % Senate Rep. | % Senate Dem. | %Pres. - %Sen. (R) | %Pres. - %Sen. (D) |
| Lafayette | 73.98% | 25.41% | 54.57% | 42.90% | 19.42% | -17.49% |
| Dixie | 68.84% | 30.42% | 52.68% | 43.37% | 16.15% | -12.95% |
| Liberty | 63.79% | 35.42% | 48.75% | 49.12% | 15.03% | -13.71% |
| Holmes | 77.25% | 21.81% | 63.41% | 32.35% | 13.84% | -10.54% |
| Taylor | 63.71% | 35.54% | 50.17% | 46.98% | 13.54% | -11.45% |
| Hardee | 69.65% | 29.64% | 56.41% | 39.30% | 13.24% | -9.65% |
| Wakulla | 57.61% | 41.62% | 45.10% | 52.05% | 12.51% | -10.43% |
| Suwannee | 70.58% | 28.61% | 58.45% | 39.00% | 12.14% | -10.39% |
| Gilchrist | 70.37% | 28.75% | 58.86% | 37.40% | 11.51% | -8.65% |
| Franklin | 58.55% | 40.47% | 47.13% | 50.26% | 11.42% | -9.79% |
| Hamilton | 54.97% | 44.50% | 44.75% | 52.68% | 10.23% | -8.18% |
| Union | 72.64% | 26.76% | 62.49% | 35.49% | 10.15% | -8.73% |
| Madison | 50.51% | 48.73% | 40.58% | 56.74% | 9.93% | -8.01% |
| Columbia | 67.05% | 32.14% | 57.15% | 39.89% | 9.90% | -7.75% |
| Calhoun | 63.41% | 35.50% | 53.69% | 43.31% | 9.72% | -7.81% |
| Levy | 62.51% | 36.48% | 53.40% | 43.56% | 9.12% | -7.09% |
| Bradford | 69.61% | 29.90% | 60.82% | 36.67% | 8.79% | -6.77% |
| Gulf | 66.07% | 33.05% | 57.38% | 40.13% | 8.69% | -7.08% |
| Baker | 77.73% | 21.90% | 69.16% | 28.95% | 8.57% | -7.05% |
| Highlands | 62.36% | 36.99% | 54.72% | 42.15% | 7.64% | -5.16% |
| Washington | 71.09% | 28.09% | 63.45% | 34.15% | 7.63% | -6.06% |
| Jackson | 61.20% | 38.15% | 53.73% | 44.24% | 7.47% | -6.09% |
| Okeechobee | 57.28% | 42.23% | 50.00% | 45.84% | 7.29% | -3.61% |
| Citrus | 56.86% | 42.14% | 49.68% | 46.32% | 7.19% | -4.17% |
| Jefferson | 44.11% | 55.29% | 36.93% | 61.10% | 7.18% | -5.81% |
| Hernando | 52.93% | 46.16% | 46.03% | 50.00% | 6.90% | -3.84% |
| Putnam | 59.12% | 40.08% | 52.23% | 44.90% | 6.88% | -4.82% |
| Hillsborough | 53.00% | 46.24% | 46.29% | 51.42% | 6.71% | -5.18% |
| Polk | 58.61% | 40.79% | 52.28% | 44.81% | 6.33% | -4.01% |
| Glades | 58.33% | 41.02% | 52.15% | 44.23% | 6.18% | -3.21% |
| Pasco | 54.07% | 44.39% | 48.02% | 48.74% | 6.05% | -4.34% |
| Sumter | 62.18% | 36.39% | 57.04% | 40.87% | 5.14% | -4.49% |
| Pinellas | 49.57% | 49.51% | 44.47% | 52.74% | 5.10% | -3.24% |
| Manatee | 56.62% | 42.66% | 51.53% | 45.86% | 5.09% | -3.20% |
| Marion | 58.20% | 41.00% | 53.23% | 44.02% | 4.97% | -3.02% |
| Walton | 73.22% | 25.92% | 68.56% | 28.94% | 4.65% | -3.02% |
| Gadsden | 29.80% | 69.72% | 25.15% | 73.33% | 4.64% | -3.61% |
| DeSoto | 58.05% | 41.18% | 53.55% | 43.28% | 4.51% | -2.10% |
| Nassau | 72.65% | 26.16% | 68.41% | 29.73% | 4.24% | -3.56% |
| Clay | 76.18% | 23.27% | 72.25% | 25.88% | 3.93% | -2.61% |
| Leon | 37.85% | 61.50% | 34.09% | 64.64% | 3.76% | -3.14% |
| Lake | 60.02% | 38.90% | 56.38% | 40.89% | 3.64% | -1.99% |
| Bay | 71.19% | 28.08% | 67.63% | 30.24% | 3.55% | -2.16% |
| Sarasota | 53.51% | 45.20% | 50.08% | 48.10% | 3.43% | -2.90% |
| Alachua | 42.89% | 56.16% | 39.63% | 58.71% | 3.25% | -2.55% |
| Brevard | 57.66% | 41.56% | 54.44% | 42.62% | 3.22% | -1.07% |
| Hendry | 58.89% | 40.52% | 55.76% | 41.97% | 3.13% | -1.45% |
| Duval | 57.76% | 41.65% | 54.66% | 43.71% | 3.10% | -2.05% |
| Okaloosa | 77.65% | 21.58% | 74.70% | 22.53% | 2.94% | -0.95% |
| Flagler | 51.03% | 48.28% | 48.13% | 49.49% | 2.89% | -1.22% |
| Santa Rosa | 77.35% | 21.78% | 74.65% | 23.04% | 2.70% | -1.26% |
| Volusia | 48.85% | 50.50% | 46.17% | 51.09% | 2.67% | -0.59% |
| St. Johns | 68.60% | 30.59% | 66.19% | 32.14% | 2.41% | -1.55% |
| Indian River | 60.12% | 39.03% | 57.80% | 39.60% | 2.32% | -0.57% |
| St. Lucie | 47.56% | 51.81% | 45.34% | 51.70% | 2.22% | 0.11% |
| Monroe | 49.24% | 49.71% | 47.19% | 49.51% | 2.05% | 0.21% |
| Seminole | 58.10% | 41.34% | 56.11% | 41.76% | 1.99% | -0.42% |
| Escambia | 65.30% | 33.74% | 63.55% | 34.56% | 1.74% | -0.83% |
| Martin | 57.09% | 41.69% | 55.41% | 42.35% | 1.68% | -0.66% |
| Palm Beach | 39.03% | 60.37% | 37.95% | 60.25% | 1.09% | 0.12% |
| Broward | 34.60% | 64.22% | 33.61% | 64.39% | 0.99% | -0.17% |
| Orange | 49.62% | 49.83% | 49.16% | 48.99% | 0.45% | 0.84% |
| Osceola | 52.46% | 46.99% | 52.00% | 45.16% | 0.45% | 1.83% |
| Charlotte | 55.69% | 42.93% | 55.49% | 42.28% | 0.20% | 0.64% |
| Lee | 59.82% | 39.09% | 59.81% | 38.24% | 0.01% | 0.84% |
| Collier | 65.04% | 34.06% | 66.01% | 32.43% | -0.97% | 1.63% |
| Miami-Dade | 46.66% | 52.84% | 49.28% | 48.96% | -2.62% | 3.88% |
| Totals | 52.10% | 47.08% | 49.44% | 48.32% | 2.66% | -1.23% |
A look at all the data reveals that the top 27 counties showing a greater preference for President Bush than the Repulican Senate candidate were using optical scan voting machines. The two counties that did not show this preference were both using touchscreen voting machines. Both were iVotronic machines manufactured by ES&S.
I have updated my Excel spreadsheet on the site for those interested in examing the numbers themselves. Data in this calculation was taken from the Florida Department of State's Website.
An analysis of the House race as compared to the Presidential race shall follow soon.
posted by Brandon Adams @ 6:30 PM
1 comments
1 Comments:
I find this tabulation stunning! It had always been my impression that most people do not vote split tickets. Here we see it happening to a substantial degree in virtually every Florida county, and in every significant case the tickets were split in favor of the same presidential candidate, whether the voter was voting for the Republican or Democratic senatorial candidate. How probable is that vis-a-vis historical data?
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